Output and order performance of the UK printing and printed packaging industry in Q1 was close to the subdued forecasts, and thankfully confidence did not sink to the depths that had been anticipated – according to the latest BPIF Printing Outlook survey.
Output levels were marginally positive, and just above forecasted levels in Q1, whilst order numbers were marginally negative and below forecasted levels. However, there is some relief that confidence in the general state of trade did not move towards the Q1 forecast, though confidence remains precariously positioned and is not yet showing signs of rebounding.
VOLUME OF OUTPUT – Q1 JUST ABOVE FORECAST, IMPROVED OUTLOOK FOR Q2
The Q1 output balance of +4 was above the forecast. A balance of +18 is forecast for Q2.
The stand-out concerns companies are facing are a perception that some competitors are pricing below cost, wage pressures have reached restrictive levels, and that their own sales levels are just not sufficient to drive their strategic plans. Furthermore, we have for a few quarters now been monitoring concerns over taxation and red tape; they have continued to build, both are now ranked amongst the top five business concerns.
TOP BUSINESS CONCERNS – % OF RESPONDENTS SELECTING
Print and printed packaging companies are continuing to make progress towards addressing sustainability issues. More companies are now measuring carbon emissions, setting targets, validating those targets, gaining relevant accreditations, and investing in initiatives to further improve their sustainability performance and credentials. In April 77% of respondents reported that they are measuring their carbon emissions (62% have been doing so for more than 12 months, and a further 15% for less than 12 months).
Of course, measuring emissions is only a start, over four-fifths of respondents (83%) stated that they are working to reduce their carbon footprint. The most popular area of attention for sustainability related investments has changed since October, waste reduction has reclaimed the top spot after being selected by 73% of respondents, ahead of solar panels and electric vehicles.
REDUCING CARBON FOOTPRINT – % OF RESPONDENTS
The BPIF Printing Outlook Q2 2025 report features sections on industry turnover, business concerns, costs, pay reviews, sustainability and much more.
There will be a Printing Outlook webinar on Tuesday 13th May at 14:00 – visit the BPIF website event page here to book your place now.
Kyle Jardine, BPIF Economist, said:
“Last year was a slow-burning improvement for activity in the industry, but despite some positive sounding rhetoric from Government regarding supporting business growth, action so far has only burdened businesses with more costs and regulations. Wage pressures have blocked recruitment intentions – and together with wider economic uncertainties, have restricted the ability of companies to reach their desired levels of investment. This culminated in a crisis in confidence, as reported last quarter, which the industry is now attempting to climb out of.”
Charles Jarrold, BPIF Chief Executive, said:
“Our members have been clear; they are crying out for Government to start supporting businesses, reduce the cost, regulatory and compliance burden they face, and make it easier for them to invest in both skills and technology. We are frequently raising these desires with Government, and it is with some interest that we now await the unveiling of the Government’s industrial strategy.”
Wayne Kershaw, National Head of Sales, Professional Print at Canon UK & Ireland, and sponsor of the printed Printing Outlook report, said:
“We acknowledge the BPIF and its Printing Outlook report for delivering the latest trends to the print industry; valuable insights that inform our decisions and help us stay ahead in the industry. The insights shared last quarter were very useful and helped to shape the direction of businesses in the print sector.”
Summary of key findings:
- Output and order performance of the UK printing and printed packaging industry in Q1 was close to the subdued forecasts, and thankfully confidence did not sink to the depths that had been anticipated.
- Forecasts for output in Q2 are more positive, despite the lingering cost concerns and the local (and global) economic and political uncertainties that surround us.
- Confidence didn’t hit the depths in Q1 as was feared back in Q4, but the reality was still negative, and the confidence outlook remains pessimistic for Q2.
- Concerns that competitors are pricing below cost has reclaimed its position as printers’ top business concern, pushing ahead of wage pressures – for which concerns still remain elevated.
- Industry capacity utilisation consolidated slightly in April; the vast majority were operating in the 60-99% ranges.
- For the second successive quarter, more companies decreased, than increased, employment levels, intentions for Q2 are more negative.
- A majority of respondents have been able to keep cost stability for most areas in Q1, the notable exception being labour costs – for which a small majority are experiencing increasing cost pressures.
- In April, paper, board, and other substrates costs returned to being the largest cost component with a 34% share, on average, of total costs – up from 31% in January.
- When it comes to company plans to increase profitability in the next twelve months, controlling costs has now become the top priority once again.
- Over one-third (35%) of respondents reported that they had conducted a pay review in Q1, the resulting average (mean) change in basic pay was 4.1%. Over half (55%) of respondents reported that they will be reviewing pay in Q2.
- Export orders exceeded 5% of turnover for 21% of respondents in April. For these companies export orders performed better in Q1 than they had in Q4 – though export order levels have remained subdued over the last two years.
- Companies are continuing to make progress towards addressing sustainability issues. More companies are now measuring carbon emissions, setting targets, validating those targets, gaining relevant accreditations, and investing in initiatives to further improve their sustainability performance and credentials.
- The most popular area of attention for sustainability related investments has changed since October, waste reduction has reclaimed the top spot after being selected by 73% of respondents.
- UK consumption of printing papers and boards in Q4 2024 increased strongly compared with Q4 2023, and Q3 2024; the annual 2024 total was also well improved on the total for 2023.
Featured in Printing Outlook this quarter:
- Output and orders – last quarter and forecast for this quarter.
- Business confidence, concerns, and uncertainty levels.
- Turnover – annual and monthly turnover analysis and forecasts.
- Capacity – utilisation and constraints.
- Costs – paper & board, ink, labour, energy, and average cost structure.
- Trend data on employment, prices, costs, margins, profits, cash flow and productivity.
- Profitability benchmarks and plans for improvement.
- Pay Reviews – activity and average % changes.
- International trade – export orders and price trends.
- Sustainability – measuring, reducing, and investing.
- Consumables – paper consumption and printing ink data.
- Energy – sector update and comment.
